15.7 C

The harsh scenarios of the US intelligence report create a dire future for the climate և economy, unless we make rapid changes.

Is time is the beginning of the 2030s. “The world is in a global catastrophe. Rising ocean temperatures: acidity have ruined large-scale fisheries that have already been stressed by years of fishing.

“At the same time, changes in precipitation rates have put pressure on major grain-producing regions around the world, raising food prices, boosting global reserves and disrupting food distribution, leading to a global famine.

“A wave of unrest has spread around the world, protesting the inability of governments to meet basic human needs, to overthrow leaders and regimes. Worldwide, the younger generations affected by the threat of COVID-19-linked food have united across borders to push for reform, calling on older generations to destroy their planet.

This is not the plot of a dystopian novel. This is a scenario from the influential new report of the US intelligence community. Introducing և researching leading universities, think tanks և businesses, the document is based on sound research.

Every four years since 1997, the Global Trends report has attempted to look to the future for 20 years. In the latest issue released last month, no one can accuse them of being a bride.

Entitled “More Competitive World”, it paves a terrific path to 2040. Climate change is evident, but not alone in the challenges ahead.

The previous report, from the beginning of 2017, raised the red flag for the global epidemic – although in 2023, not in 2020.

It also warned against the collapse of alliances of nationalist politicians (“America First”), the sharp fall in oil prices, and protectionist trade policies.

The new report states: “Like the terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001, the COVID-19 epidemic is likely to bring about some of the changes that will take place years from now, changing the way we live, work, and manage domestically and internationally. “However, how wonderful they will be is very questionable.”

Indeed, the epidemic has “shaken the long-held assumptions about stability, adaptability, new uncertainties about the economy, governance, geopolitics and technology.” Trust seems to be a victim, too, with everything politicized in our closely divided nation.

Even at the speed of vaccines, many Americans, even in the supposedly advanced state of Washington, will refuse to receive them.

We are just beginning to sort out the road in Seattle, the superstar city of the 2010s, where they have seen the wounding of key sections, և politics has shifted to the extreme left. Returns are not guaranteed, especially if the most pitiful predictions in this report come true.

Economics is one of the four strategic areas of focus (the others being demographics, environment և technology), which are considered to be “fundamental to the development of future dynamics on a relatively universal scale”.

The economic sector of the Appears income seems to be more predictable as it continues its ongoing trends. Powerful companies are expanding; developing global competitiveness; labor growth disruptions; by dividing the trade և growing public debt.

However, being familiar with the challenges does not guarantee that the report will agree on each outcome. For example, consider the effect of artificial intelligence: automation on employment. Will it destroy relatively few jobs (9%)? Accelerate the persistent mismatch of employees և existing jobs? Create more jobs than destroy? Or “can 2040 be unemployed?”

The introduction presents the reasons why each of these outcomes is possible. But it is clear that these next two decades will not be as smooth as, say, the 1950s and 1970s.

As for trade, expect the World Trade Organization to pursue American ambitions after World War II over the next two decades. Regional agreements will play a bigger role. This raises many questions for Washington, America’s most dependent trade-vulnerable state.

The introduction says: “The combination of the desire to protect jobs in the manufacturing sector, the winner’s concerns about making a profit from all technological advances, and potential investments such as medical equipment and pharmaceutical funds may accelerate the implementation of protectionist trade policies.”

The financial crises that the United States avoided from the end of the Great Depression until 2008 are likely to become more prevalent.

Climate change is really a priority in the new strategic assessment.

The science of human-induced global warming is already more well-established than the proponents of denial. It already affects the economy, the environment and geopolitics (for example, the Syrian civil war).

The past decade has been the hottest on record, with every 10-year stretch being hotter than the previous one since the 1960s.

Towards 2040, the intelligence agencies conclude: “Climate change will increase the risks to human մարդու national security և will force states to make tough choices և exchanges. “The burden will be distributed unequally, strengthening competition, promoting instability, increasing military readiness, and encouraging political movements.”

Higher temperatures, extreme weather, rising sea levels և the resulting migration bake in the cake. The question is, to what extent do they get worse? Can societies and governments make the changes needed to reduce emissions? How much can new technologies help? The next 20 years will be crucial in resolving this existential crisis.

This 150-page document allows space to block its bets. Even a revival of democracy is possible. But it is not possible. The predominance of evidence points to the future of conflict, mistrust, inevitably growing inequality, disruption, and difficult elections. Nuclear proliferation, even nuclear war, is more likely.

Everything is not lost. Scenarios are not destiny. Global Trends offers policy makers some ways to get the worst out of it.

The Biden administration has made a promising start to re-establishing the US leadership in the climate alliance, to “build better” by proposing massive investment in infrastructure, and by promoting “justice” opportunities. If the Democrats hold Congress in 2022 և 2024, we can just get a chance.

Otherwise, we will again fall into a stalemate, setting the table for the worst of Global Trends. We can not say that we were not warned.


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